Thomas E. Herald Jr.

Obsolescence Management Forecasting: for Strategic Operational System Sustainment Decision Making Thomas E. Herald Jr.

The affordable effectiveness of commercial, civil, and military systems must be managed through their life cycles. Once the performance baseline is defined and instantiated, the challenge during the development, production, and utilization life cycle phases is to affordably sustain the physical system baseline. This baseline continuously evolves in response to external influences such as; frequent and asynchronous obsolescence of system elements, changing requirements (mission needs, schedule and funding), and changing policy and regulations (i.e. security, export laws and safety standards). This research specifically addresses the impact of asynchronous obsolescence of system elements on overall system effectiveness and cost during its operational and support life cycle phases. An overview of a system obsolescence forecasting model, se-Fly Fisher, is detailed. This model uses technology curves of individual system elements (actual parts) for an understanding of obsolescence at the lowest level. The se-Fly Fisher model provides tactical insight of HOW often the system baseline should change, WHAT elements must change and HOW MUCH performance potential is realized.